LSU’s feud with the SEC raises an unlikely question: Could the Tigers make independence work?
College football has spent the past several years dismantling its own traditions. Regional conferences. Annual rivalries. The notion of the amateur student-athlete. Apparently, the next debate is whether an NFL contract should come with a return ticket to campus.
Naturally, Lane Kiffin found his way into the middle of it.
In June, the NCAA adopted a new eligibility model allowing up to five seasons of competition within a five-year period. Athletes who had already exhausted their eligibility under the previous rules were excluded, prompting lawsuits from players seeking another season. Some had already signed professional contracts. The rule change did not automatically make them eligible to return. That question moved to the courts.
LSU pursued former NFL signees, including former Ole Miss players Dae’Quan Wright and Zxavian Harris. The SEC objected. According to its court filings, LSU had joined every other conference member in approving an August 25 statement reaffirming restrictions on former professionals.
Then came the lawyers.
On September 3, a Louisiana judge issued an injunction against the NCAA that opened a path for the players to return. The SEC filed a separate federal lawsuit asserting its right to enforce the conference’s standards. LSU ultimately left the former NFL players off its football roster.
Disaster postponed.
The federal case remains alive. The SEC argues that the dispute concerns its broader authority; LSU’s side argues that there is no live controversy because the players were never rostered. October 20 is the deadline for an optional reply supporting dismissal, not a deadline for LSU’s departure from the conference. No expulsion meeting is currently scheduled.
Basketball has added another wrinkle, although the latest development cools the temperature. On October 13, Will Wade said LSU would follow SEC protocols regarding RJ Luis, who previously signed NBA contracts. Questions remain about other prospective players, including NBA draft pick Saliou Niang. Those cases involve different eligibility issues and should not be treated as interchangeable.
Expulsion remains an extraordinary and unlikely outcome. But extraordinary and unlikely have become fairly ordinary descriptions of college football.
So let’s entertain the possibility.
Could LSU follow Notre Dame’s path and become a football independent?
The SEC constitution requires approval from at least two-thirds of its chief executive officers to terminate a member’s membership. With 16 schools, that means 11 votes. The termination motion must specify an effective date; there is no automatic two-year transition.
For this exercise, assume a negotiated departure after the 2027 season, with independent football beginning in 2028. That is a hypothetical timetable, not a forecast. It would give LSU time to assemble a schedule, negotiate television rights and find a conference home for its other sports.
On the field, LSU would have a credible chance to succeed. The Tigers would still have their recruiting territory, passionate supporters and a brand broadcasters recognize. Tiger Stadium would not suddenly become less intimidating because someone removed the SEC logo.
Maintaining that strength would depend on what followed. Recruiting is easier when players know whom they will face, where they will be televised and how they can reach the playoff. Independence would require LSU to provide convincing answers.
For the other sports, let’s grant the central assumption: LSU secures a Notre Dame-style arrangement with a major conference.
Its baseball and women’s basketball programs would make an attractive sales pitch. The ACC or Big 12 could be plausible negotiating partners. Neither, however, would owe LSU admission, a particular revenue share or five annual football opponents. Those benefits would have to be negotiated.
And then comes the part that usually decides everything: television money.
The SEC’s reported average distribution for full-share members reached approximately $72.4 million for fiscal 2024–25. Notre Dame received approximately $18.1 million from the ACC that year, while its NBC football agreement has been widely reported at roughly $50 million annually. These are useful reference points, but they are not identical revenue packages.
Suppose LSU negotiated $40 million annually for football and another $18 million through a conference partnership. That produces $58 million. It is an illustration, not a valuation—and it falls roughly $14 million short of the SEC benchmark before accounting for differences in playoff distributions, expenses and other revenue.
LSU could survive that calculation. Declaring independence more lucrative would require considerably better numbers.
Scheduling would be equally important. A conference partnership could provide a foundation, supplemented by former SEC opponents, other major programs and a manageable supporting cast. An annual Notre Dame game would be an appealing television proposition.
Unfortunately, an appealing television proposition is not the same thing as an available Saturday.
Former SEC opponents would have conference obligations and limited openings. Broadcasters would value LSU’s schedule partly on the strength of those opponents. LSU would therefore need quality games to sell its television package—and financial certainty to build its program.
Notre Dame has spent decades developing that ecosystem. LSU would be trying to assemble one while moving out.
A larger playoff could make independence more practical by expanding access. A hypothetical 24-team field would give LSU more room to build a credible postseason path, although the qualification rules and financial terms would still matter.
Would success encourage other schools to investigate independence? Certainly. Miami and Penn State have independent histories. Texas has the resources and brand recognition to command attention.
But investigating is easy. Walking away from a major conference’s distribution, scheduling structure and contractual commitments is considerably harder.
Notre Dame proves that independence can support a national contender. It does not prove that independence automatically produces more money than SEC or Big Ten membership.
That is what makes LSU an interesting test case. The Tigers have enough stature to make independence imaginable and enough to lose to make it dangerous.
The most likely ending remains a settlement, some uncomfortable meetings and LSU continuing to cash SEC checks.
But if the relationship ever does collapse, the interesting question will extend beyond whether LSU can survive.
It will be whether the Tigers can build something valuable enough to make anyone else consider leaving.
